US Presence in Afghanistan Beyond 2014

Top Obama administration officials want to keep around 10,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan when formal combat ends in 2014, cementing a limited, long-term American military presence in the country if Kabul agrees, said senior U.S. officials.

A post-2014 troop level of that size would represent the midpoint of preliminary recommendations by Gen. John Allen, the commander of U.S. and international forces in Afghanistan. Gen. Allen has proposed maintaining a force between 6,000 and 15,000 U.S. troops to conduct training and counter terrorism efforts when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization mission formally concludes at the end of 2014, officials said. In contrast, the U.S. maintains no residual force in Iraq, a situation that has been blamed for instability in that country.

Still, those early recommendations reflect the Obama administration's preference for a relatively small long-term presence. Some administration officials believe a small long-term presence will put less stress on the armed forces and be more palatable to both the American and Afghan publics. Some outside defense analysts have said it would require a much larger U.S. presence—perhaps as many as 30,000 troops—to continue to train the Afghan security forces and keep Afghanistan stable.

Any troop presence after 2014 would require the consent of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and a long-term bilateral security agreement is now being discussed. Afghan officials said Mr. Karzai is willing to accept a U.S. troop presence post-2014, as long as key demands are met. But a major demand is that American forces come under the jurisdiction of Afghan courts.

A similar demand was a deal breaker in security talks between the U.S. and Iraq in 2011, precipitating a U.S. withdrawal with no residual American force.

A U.S. force of 10,000 to 15,000 would have its limits, said Kimberly Kagan and Frederick Kagan, defense analysts who have advised the military command in Afghanistan. Such a force would have to set aside Afghan training operations to focus on counterterrorism efforts, they said. Such a narrow focus, though, could hamper a deal with Kabul, which doesn't view al Qaeda as a direct threat.

How many U.S. troops to leave in Afghanistan after 2014 is just one of the difficult decisions awaiting the White House. Potentially more controversial will be how quickly to reduce U.S. troop levels over the next two years, from the current 66,000.

Administration officials want to agree on a recommendation for long-term troop numbers first, and then address the pace of the withdrawals. A senior U.S. official said agreeing to a long-term troop presence would allow the Pentagon to better present recommendations on "the glide path between now and 2014."

The speed of U.S. withdrawals could spark debate between military officers and administration officials. While many in the White House would like to see a substantial and constant drawdown over the next two years, the Pentagon favors Gen. Allen's plan to delay most reductions until the winter months, when fighting is at a lull, a senior U.S. official said. (The fighting season begins after the snows melt in the Afghan mountains, usually in April.)

Gen. Allen wants a gradual drawdown in 2013 and 2014, with reductions tied to key benchmarks including the fighting seasons and the April 2014 Afghan presidential elections, a process he has referred to as "stutter-steps."

Gen. Allen's informal recommendation for post-2014 Afghanistan this month was submitted to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said administration officials.

George Little, the Pentagon press secretary, acknowledged discussions have begun, but wouldn't specify what Gen. Allen has recommended. A decision on the post-2014 troop presence won't be made until after U.S. and Afghan officials complete negotiations on the security agreement.

"At the appropriate time, the president will make decisions about the future scope and size of our presence in Afghanistan based on what is in our national interest and in coordination with our Afghan and [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] partners," Mr. Little said.

A spokesman for Gen. Allen, Marine Maj. David Nevers, said the recommendations are "still in formulation" but would be forwarded to President Barack Obama before year-end.

The debate over the long-term troop presence has been complicated by a continuing investigation of Gen. Allen. This month, Mr. Panetta ordered the Pentagon inspector general to investigate email contacts between Gen. Allen and a Tampa socialite, Jill Kelley. Ms. Kelley touched off a Federal Bureau of Investigation probe that led to revelations that the former Central Intelligence Agency Director David Petraeus was involved in an extramarital affair, prompting his resignation.

Gen. Allen's nomination to become the top NATO commander has been put on hold amid the Pentagon probe. However, administration, defense and congressional officials have voiced support for him, and defense officials said the investigation hasn't diminished his standing in talks on troop levels. He has backed keeping the current troop level, 66,000, through the end of the 2013 fighting season in October.

But a discussion over troop plans for 2013 is just beginning and Mr. Little said any numbers being floated for the 2013 drawdown were "pure speculation."

A White House official said the administration will soon consider how to move forward "on further troop withdrawals" and the post-2014 presence, and has asked for options from the Pentagon about what the military presence "might look like."

A version of this article appeared November 26, 2012, on page A1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: U.S. Looks To Set Size Of Afghan Presence. - credit http://online.wsj.com