Blackwater founder argues for the primacy of low-visibility, localized, deniable forces, backed by private sector efficiencies

2021 showcased the inability of the West to win small, long wars, and now, on the eve of 2022, the perils of far more existential big, fast wars loom over East-West relations.

These risks pose grave questions.

In the wake of the US humiliation in Afghanistan, and with fears rising of a potentially apocalyptic conflict breaking out over the flashpoint Taiwan Strait, how can conflict be better managed –- or even better, effectively obviated?

In a world in which state-run militaries seek ever-bigger budget allocations, while generals and their staffs war game with expensive conventional weapons and deadly strategic arms, conflict management tends to fall within the realm of deterrent strategy.

But what if conventional weapons and tactics fail – as happened in Afghanistan? What if deterrence falters – as it may do over Taiwan?